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Prediction markets for ABC News

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

3.48%chance

7227915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5264

190

Department of Education eliminated by June 2026

Dec 26, 12:22 AMDec 22, 1:00 AM

6.39%chance

4420076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3826

261

Will Iran try to assassinate Trump?

Feb 4, 10:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

186263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?

Dec 11, 3:54 PMSep 2, 2:59 AM

1%chance

103406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

71

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

16.52%chance

213194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2248

445

Will Laura Loomer have a baby or be pregnant by end of 2025?

Sep 16, 1:53 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

11.68%chance

172906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2750

364

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.98%chance

121952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.01%chance

261841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

975

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.23%chance

261269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

785

Which nations will take in Palestinian refugees?

Feb 10, 10:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13999

OptionProbability

Spain

Canada

Lebanon

Sweden

Qatar

Ireland

Norway

Jordan

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Germany

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Israel

78

60

58

55

55

54

53

52

52

50

50

44

38

10

8

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Mainstream media coverage of biblical extraterrestrial theories increases by January 1, 2026

Mar 16, 1:46 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

45%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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