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Prediction markets for Apollo

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?

Nov 23, 10:43 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

2.17%chance

5317332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6960

660

When will a man land on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions?

Feb 28, 8:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

132520

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

92

91

85

80

76

64

41

14

2

By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo)

Jan 12, 2:58 AMJan 3, 7:29 PM

171500

OptionProbability

United States

China

Canada

India

Germany

France

Italy

Japan

United Kingdom

Russia

81

69

40

40

40

40

40

39

39

10

Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80%chance

171245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

935

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.91%chance

201175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1594

530

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

By 2030, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo)

Jan 11, 2:27 PMJan 3, 7:29 PM

181086

OptionProbability

United States

China

United Kingdom

Japan

Canada

Germany

France

India

Russia

Italy

77

60

33

32

32

30

30

28

10

10

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon?

Dec 24, 5:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5326

OptionProbability

David Scott

Buzz Aldrin

Harrison Hagan Schmitt

Other

Charles Duke Jr

meh

30

29

27

7

5

1

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.79%chance

12296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

900

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

Dec 7, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

2105

OptionProbability

NO

YES

375

196

Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?

Mar 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Which Apollo astronaut will be the last to get around without needing to use a wheelchair?

Sep 11, 12:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Other

50

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