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Prediction markets for Artemis

Will Artemis II launch before 2026?

Apr 13, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.94%chance

4020422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11540

149

Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?

Nov 16, 8:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.7%chance

518482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

512

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

87.55%chance

107350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2652

377

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

Apr 13, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.92%chance

335071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

833

Will Artemis III launch before 2027?

Mar 12, 6:34 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

1.99%chance

134754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5357

737

Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?

Oct 28, 6:09 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

46.48%chance

211460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

926

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Sep 13, 9:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.92%chance

281294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1765

820

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.91%chance

201175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1594

530

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

15879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

537

Will 15 or more starship and super-heavy launches be required for Artemis 3?

Feb 19, 5:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.38%chance

16567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

877

Which Artemis HLS system will land on the Moon

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9504

OptionProbability

Starship HLS

Blue Moon

Dynetics HLS

77

57

13

Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon?

May 19, 3:25 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

61.98%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

70

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