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Prediction markets for Blue Origin

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

71.63%chance

7217120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

688

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

22.05%chance

518642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

258

Blue Origin worth more than SpaceX by EOY 2026?

Mar 11, 7:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.75%chance

183279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2504

399

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.42%chance

141349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

525

Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?

Nov 13, 3:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.98%chance

141009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

Will Blue Origin ever be worth more than SpaceX before 2040?

Mar 7, 3:18 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM

32.97%chance

8464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

200

When will Blue Origin reach orbit?

Jul 30, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

10225

OptionProbability

YES

NO

172

111

Will SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035?

May 22, 1:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

72.65%chance

9176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

111

Will Blue Origin beat SpaceX to land safely on the moon?

Jul 5, 5:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.69%chance

6169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

What will be the name of the third Blue Origin rocket?

Jan 4, 8:29 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

676

OptionProbability

New Armstrong

Other

New Borman

New Young

New White

New Lovell

New Grissom

New Schirra

75

8

4

3

3

3

3

3

Will a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035?

May 22, 1:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.82%chance

539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

92

Will Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 16, 2:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.98%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

73

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