US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

War Ends in June

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Iran launches a cruise missile

Israel government dissolves

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

A second cease-fire is announced

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian government dissolves

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Iran regime change

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Total casualties exceed 10,000

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

War ends in July

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

NO

YES

Max Tegmark

Emmett Shear

Bruce Schneier

George Church

Scott Aaronson

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ben Bernanke

Stephen Fry

Tim Urban

Grimes

Scott Alexander

A former Fed Chair

Neel Nanda

A professor of a Chinese university

Stuart Russell

Toby Ord

Yoshua Bengio

Geoffrey Hinton

Carl Feynman

Nick Bostrom

Vitalik Buterin

Yuval Noah Harari

Dwarkesh Patel

Geoffrey Irving

Billy Perrigo

Kevin Roose

Manifold

Gwern

Helen Toner

Ezra Klein

Patrick McKenzie

Publishers Weekly

Vox

Christine Peterson

Keach Hagey

Bill Gates

Evan Hubinger

Joe Rogan

Kurzgesagt

San Francisco Chronicle

Booklist

NPR

Politico

Lex Fridman

The Economist

Matthew Yglesias

David Chalmers

Peter Singer

A former US Secretary of Treasury

A former US Secretary of State

BBC

Time

Any five current members of the UK Parliament

A former US Secretary of Energy

A former US Secretary of Commerce

Tucker Carlson

WIRED

Eric Schmidt

Gillian Hadfield

Karen Hao

A review in The Atlantic

Telegraph

The New York Times Book Review

Peter Norvig

At least five Nobel laureates

Rolling Stone

The New Yorker

A Science editorial

The Guardian

Ray Kurzweil

John Schulman

A current pope

Financial Times

Bloomberg Businessweek

Forbes

A New Scientist editorial

A current US Secretary of Treasury

John Oliver

IEEE Spectrum

Vanity Fair

roon

Elon Musk

Mustafa Suleyman

Judea Pearl

António Guterres

Foreign Affairs

Barack Obama

A Scientific American editorial

A Nature editorial

The Washington Post

Demis Hassabis

Associated Press

Any five current United States representatives

The Wall Street Journal

Anthropic

Shane Legg

Ilya Sutskever

A current UK prime minister

JD Vance

Alexandr Wang

Daron Acemoglu

A high-ranking Chinese government official

Reuters

RFK Jr

Ivanka Trump

Narendra Modi

Benjamin Netanyahu

Terence Tao

CNN

Peter Thiel

Jimmy Fallon

Mira Murati

Richard Sutton

A current Fed Chair

Ursula von der Leyen

OpenAI

DeepMind

Daniela Amodei

Jensen Huang

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Joe Biden

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Any five current United States senators

Jeff Bezos

Satya Nadella

Greg Egan

A current US Secretary of Energy

Bill Clinton

JK Rowling

Fox News

Chris Olah

A current US Secretary of Commerce

A current US Secretary of State

Noam Chomsky

Donald J. Trump

Mr. Beast

Vladimir Putin

Tim Cook

Kamala Harris

King Charles

Xi Jinping

Taylor Swift

YES

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

Axios

Wired

CNN

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

The New York Times

Wikimedia Foundation

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Sierra Club

Black Lives Matter

Greenpeace

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Cochrane Reviews

BBC

Twitter/X

The Guardian

Snopes

CNN

Facebook

Epoch Times

NPR

Wired

Time

TMZ

Los Angeles Times

New York Post

USA Today

The Onion

Times of India

Gateway Pundit

Babylon Bee

Daily Wire

Newsmax

Breitbart

Al Jazeera

Associated Press (AP)

The Information

The Base Rate Times

Fox News

Wall Street Journal

CNN

BBC

NPR

NO

YES