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Prediction markets for CNSA

Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?

Feb 28, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.35%chance

7321007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1422

778

Which organisation will be the second after SpaceX to propulsively land an orbital class booster?

Mar 1, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

111024

OptionProbability

Blue Origin

Rocketlab

CNSA

Stoke Space

Relativity Space

48

35

14

2

2

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission launch before 2026?

Sep 23, 12:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

99%chance

2818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

890

9

Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 16, 2:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.98%chance

13491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

844

Will CNSA construct a manned lunar base before 2040?

Sep 23, 2:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

962

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5307

OptionProbability

SpaceX

CNSA

NASA

ESA

Other

JAXA

Roscosmos

34

26

17

12

6

5

0

Who will be responsible for the next space fatality?

Sep 19, 3:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11306

OptionProbability

NASA

Roscosmos

SpaceX

CNSA

Boeing

Blue Origin

Axion

Virgin Galactic

44

42

26

22

21

20

15

12

Will CNSA's Chang'e 7 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 23, 2:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

89.64%chance

5300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

59

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.39%chance

683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?

Sep 23, 5:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.72%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

104

Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?

Sep 23, 12:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.64%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

86

Will CNSA's Interstellar Express probe reach 100 AU from the sun by 2055?

Sep 17, 2:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

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