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Prediction markets for China

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.45%chance

870486780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16548

10885

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

492141305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2671

2237

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

58.2%chance

26785991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2561

1198

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.15%chance

5776632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39050

2561

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

916

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.76%chance

2440407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36783

7377

Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

Mar 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

63.52%chance

14438706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1320

758

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.09%chance

5631829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22383

7194

Is China’s LVA Surgery a legitimate treatment for Alzheimer’s?

Nov 23, 6:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.31%chance

4429652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29503

3714

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

298568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.01%chance

515685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

734

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.02%chance

384335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1817

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