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Prediction markets for Complete

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

168131844

OptionProbability

Before 2026-08-01

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Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

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84

83

77

70

62

55

33

33

24

18

10

2

0

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Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.54%chance

5427446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

771

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

Tesla completes 20,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

2415399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

806

Will Mitch McConnell complete his current term as Senator from Kentucky?

Jul 28, 2:56 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

78.2%chance

1028967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2619

345

Tesla completes 100,000+ rideshare rides per week before April 2026?

May 1, 12:10 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

28.16%chance

296480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1597

626

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

61.64%chance

176330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12676

7889

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Nov 19, 1:57 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

90.2%chance

185249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4897

736

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

272955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2248

1874

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

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