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Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

10.9%chance

79222374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170510

16369

Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17272314

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

Universities

Paper straws

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

Alejandro Mayorkas

Jack Smith

Solar Energy

Zohran Mamdani

Leakers

National Institutes of Health

Bruce Springsteen

The New York Times (NYT)

Panama

Alexander Vindman

Stephen Colbert

Joe Biden

The Atlantic

Greenland

Barack Obama

Beyoncé

Ann Selzer

the National Archives

Rosie O'Donnell

Michael Cohen

Fluoride

Nancy Pelosi

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

John Kelly

Public Libraries

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Miles Taylor

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Bill Barr

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Seth Myers

Taylor Swift

Vaccine mandates

Emmanuel Macron

Christopher Steele

Jimmy Kimmel

Wikipedia

Ken Klippenstein

TIME magazine

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Any Manifold User

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

Mike Pence

Jeff Bezos

Mariann Edgar Budde

SSRIs

E. Jean Carroll

WIRED Magazine

Liz Cheney

Tucker Carlson

Brad Raffensperger

BlueSky

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Pete Hegseth

Black Nationals

Alec Baldwin

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

Not Elected

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

93

85

83

83

82

81

80

76

74

73

70

68

65

63

62

60

60

58

55

54

53

53

50

50

50

50

50

43

40

38

37

35

33

32

31

29

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

25

23

21

20

19

19

18

14

12

12

12

10

6

4

3

2

0

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

67.6%chance

537244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

692

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.13%chance

795708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

1369

Will Donald Trump live to see Hunter Biden spend a day in jail?

Jun 13, 1:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

314894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4405

1291

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2063?

May 24, 2:37 PMMay 14, 3:59 AM

46.98%chance

19357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

980

Will Ryan Routh live until the day he is sentenced?

Sep 16, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.16%chance

897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

51

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, what percentage of Americans will live on less than $40 per day in 2028?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

26.91%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

208

Will the 85th anniversary of D-Day have any living D-Day WW2 veterans show up?

Jun 18, 12:05 AMMay 25, 3:59 AM

67.09%chance

283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

70

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