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Prediction markets for Death

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30973505

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

83

9

5

1

1

0

0

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

17.82%chance

9948527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

1339

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11036

9044

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9121986

OptionProbability

Other

Heart Attack

Cancer

Stroke

Assassination

36

35

13

9

7

Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?

Oct 22, 5:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.3%chance

5819870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

428

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.56%chance

8517148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

1711

Does any eating window reduce chance of cancer related death?

Mar 24, 1:48 AMSep 16, 4:59 AM

54.45%chance

241508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

845

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?

Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

51.25%chance

331312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

906

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

19.77%chance

12994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3413

2468

Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?

Dec 17, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.66%chance

14971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10560

7294

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.22%chance

22897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

961

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

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