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Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3074836

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?

Jan 15, 10:24 PMDec 22, 4:59 AM

19.71%chance

5314370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

965

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Jan 15, 6:51 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

55%chance

10514018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1567

1109

Will the Democratic Party Nominee for 2028 be a woman?

Dec 29, 11:52 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

25.15%chance

6612747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

819

Eric Adams switches party affiliation from Democrat before January 1, 2026

Dec 4, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

61.4%chance

2510624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

793

Will the Democratic Party nominate a female presidential candidate in the 2028 US Presidential elections?

Nov 6, 1:59 PMAug 30, 8:59 PM

25.73%chance

232690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

589

Will Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections?

Dec 10, 2:56 AMNov 3, 1:55 PM

20.14%chance

412459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

832

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

23.1%chance

551530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1668

1420

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

41715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.52%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

742

Will the democratic party win the 2032 U.S. presidential election?

Jan 15, 10:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.5%chance

26440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

930

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.76%chance

6433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

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