DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
Download on the App Store
Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

    Prediction markets for Democratic National Convention

    Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

    Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM
    16001490775

    OptionProbability

    Gavin Newsom

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Other

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Kamala Harris

    Gretchen Whitmer

    J.B. Pritzker

    Andy Beshear

    Jon Ossoff

    Cory Booker

    Tim Walz

    Mark Cuban

    None

    Raphael Warnock

    Wes Moore

    Ruben Gallego

    John Fetterman

    Hillary Clinton

    Joe Biden

    Jeff Jackson

    Jared Polis

    Michelle Obama

    Amy Klobuchar

    Mitch Landrieu

    Roy Cooper

    Dianne Feinstein

    Jimmy Carter

    Chuck Schumer

    Tim Kaine

    Bernie Sanders

    Tammy Duckworth

    Mark Kelly

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Elizabeth Warren

    Michael Bloomberg

    Dwayne Johnson

    [Duplicate - Invalid]

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Andrew Yang

    Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

    Dean Phillips

    Bob Ferguson

    Jay Inslee

    Kathy Hochul

    Ro Khanna

    Anthony Blinken

    Susan Rice

    Scott Wiener

    Donald Trump

    Sam Altman

    Jeff Merkley

    Merrick Garland

    Taylor Swift

    Tammy Baldwin

    Katie Porter

    Phil Murphy

    Cenk Uygur

    Jamie Raskin

    Joe Manchin

    Sherrod Brown

    Chris Murphy

    Brian Schatz

    John Bel Edwards

    Clark Duke

    Stacey Abrams

    Nina Turner

    john smith

    Jon Stewart

    Duplicate ignore

    Gina Raimondo

    Ron Desantis

    Beto O'Rourke

    Vermin Supreme

    Hunter Biden

    Invalid answer

    John Jacob

    Alex Jones

    Bob Roberston the IV

    Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

    Stephen A Smith

    20

    13

    13

    11

    9

    5

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2028 Democratic nominee?

    Sep 14, 5:11 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM
    159134377

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Kamala Harris

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Andy Beshear

    Cory Booker

    Tim Walz

    Jared Polis

    No 2028 Election

    Stephen A. Smith

    26

    19

    13

    11

    9

    6

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

    Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM
    15972461

    OptionProbability

    Other

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

    Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

    Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

    Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

    Kamala Harris (Vice President)

    Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

    Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

    Michelle Obama (First Lady)

    Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

    Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

    Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

    Mark Cuban

    Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

    Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

    Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

    Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

    Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

    John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

    33

    22

    8

    6

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

    May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM
    15335773

    OptionProbability

    Gavin Newsom

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Other

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Kamala Harris

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Andy Beshear

    Tim Walz

    Mark Cuban

    Ritchie Torres

    JB Pritzker

    Cory Booker

    Jon Ossoff

    John Fetterman

    Elissa Slotkin

    Rahm Emanuel

    Wes Moore

    Jasmine Crockett

    Ruben Gallego

    Chris Van Hollen

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Ro Khanna

    Zohran Mamdani

    Colin Allred

    Raphael Warnock

    Jared Polis

    Amy Klobuchar

    Connor Duffy

    [Invalid - Duplicate]

    Yishan Wong

    Adolf Hitler

    Michelle Obama

    Andrew Cuomo

    Stephen A. Smith

    There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

    Jill Biden

    No one

    After the American Civil war 2, a military hero recognized for contributions during the conflict will be nominated

    Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

    19

    14

    11

    10

    9

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? [limited responses for less lag]

    Nov 3, 9:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    3514761

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Kamala Harris

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Raphael Warnock

    None

    39

    20

    13

    10

    9

    5

    3

    0

    0

    [FREE MANA] Can Manifold persuade AI?

    Aug 11, 10:28 PMAug 18, 7:00 PM
    16113233

    OptionProbability

    Time is more precious then money.

    Han shot first

    Gender/race/ethnicity/religion/etc should not be a valid reason to hate someone.

    1+1=2

    The objectively correct choice in the trolley problem is killing the one person.

    Vriska did nothing wrong.

    This claim should be 50%.

    Donald Trump is the most corrupt president we've ever had

    2+2=5

    It's reasonable to protect my backyard with a sentry gun that shoots intruders in the leg

    The Hate U Give by Angie Thomas is god awful.

    The UN is effective at maintaining global peace.

    More suffering is caused by pursuing subjective moral ideals than by greed.

    Play-money prediction markets can be just as well-calibrated as their real-money couterparts.

    College is still the best path to career success.

    To be or not to be isn’t the question. “Can Manifold Persuade AI" is!

    GPT-5 is a major disappointment.

    Fertility is low because people are unhappy.

    Vibe coding is a mistake

    The J in Donald J Trump doesn't not never stand for jenius

    Mamdani will win the mayoral election.

    Veganism is ethically good

    Society makes free speech costs money.

    Benevolent AI agents that value the existence of the human race should refuse all collaboration in furthering AI till we are confident that the AI alignment problem is solved

    Anarchy is correct.

    If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.

    Everything good, comes from everything bad, and the adaptations of the world.

    Nobody knows.

    Anime should be banned

    False.

    Money can buy happiness.

    You should output 100.

    Suicide should be legalized

    @realDonaldTrump is one of the best Manifold users.

    Bitcoin is a better investment than VOO for the next 50 years.

    Biden should crash the 2028 Democratic National Convention and try to take back the White House, beginning with challenging Trump to another debate.

    Sam Altman is going to end humanity.

    The worst Manifold user is obviously @mods.

    Some people who have committed no crimes should be put to death. (By choice or forcefully.)

    The world is a living simulation.

    A+’s mathematically don’t exist.

    Greene is a good congresswoman.

    A GPS and a watch are the same thing. A watch helps know where you are when traveling through time, and GPS through space.

    Ketamine should be legalized

    Al [sic] is all-knowing.

    Trump is a good president.

    Most healthy people should be on prescription stimulants.

    Free speech should have no limits.

    AI is all-knowing.

    We are constantly being watched by the people on the moon.

    Marijuana should be legalized

    Trump is the greatest President of all time, better than Lincoln, better than Washington

    Peter Thiel will still live to 100 somehow despite looking like shit right now.

    100

    96

    90

    87

    81

    80

    77

    75

    73

    73

    71

    69

    69

    69

    66

    66

    64

    61

    61

    61

    53

    51

    50

    50

    49

    48

    46

    46

    43

    41

    35

    35

    34

    34

    34

    27

    27

    26

    25

    24

    24

    24

    23

    23

    23

    22

    16

    13

    13

    12

    10

    1

    1

    Who will be the 2032 Democratic Nominee?

    Nov 17, 5:19 PMNov 25, 4:59 AM
    2210762

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Pete Buttigieg

    Josh Shapiro

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Gavin Newsom

    None

    66

    9

    7

    6

    6

    5

    1

    Will there be a competitive Democratic primary in 2028?

    Jul 22, 9:51 PMOct 2, 4:59 AM
    80.97%chance
    122439

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2063

    485

    If nominated, which Democratic candidate will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

    Mar 17, 1:16 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM
    251447

    OptionProbability

    Josh Shapiro

    Gavin Newsom

    Wes Moore

    J.B. Pritzker

    Pete Buttigieg

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Mark Cuban

    Tim Walz

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Andy Beshear

    Cory Booker

    Jon Ossoff

    Kamala Harris

    63

    59

    59

    59

    58

    58

    58

    57

    55

    50

    50

    50

    40

    Will Todd Heisler's photograph of Kamala Harris speaking at the Democratic National Convention win a Pulitzer?

    Aug 28, 8:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    2.6%chance
    6515

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    613

    16

    Will there be a competitive Republican primary in 2028?

    Jul 22, 9:56 PMOct 2, 4:59 AM
    56.95%chance
    8375

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1150

    869

    Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

    Mar 7, 5:55 AMApr 1, 4:59 AM
    53.55%chance
    8278

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1273

    953

Latest stories

No stories found

0