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Prediction markets for El Salvador

Is at least one of the stories about an innocent person deported by the US to prison in El Salvador substantially true?

Mar 29, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.63%chance

2318382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8486

118

Will the Trump administration deport a US citizen to El Salvador this year?

Mar 17, 2:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.63%chance

647475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

827

Will Trump accept El Salvador’s offer to house U.S. criminals?

Feb 4, 4:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

38.16%chance

156904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2179

1823

Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?

Jul 29, 1:05 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.32%chance

302759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

879

Will the US knowingly deport at least one citizen to El Salvador for imprisonment by EOY2025?

Apr 3, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.46%chance

351255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be deported to El Salvador before 2029?

Jun 7, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.09%chance

91224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1728

579

Will another country follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as legal tender by the end of 2025?

May 13, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.82%chance

15960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1303

788

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

A US citizen moved and held in El Salvador against a court order for at least seven days during Trump's term?

Apr 16, 7:03 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

21.86%chance

15493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Will Bitcoin "Volcano Bonds" from El Salvador be issued by 2025?

Feb 2, 9:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.12%chance

13480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

940

Will a sitting US president visit El Salvador through 2029?

Aug 6, 3:58 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

35.29%chance

14231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

968

Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030?

Mar 18, 12:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

107

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