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Election Freedom

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Prediction markets for Election Freedom

If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?

Mar 15, 10:49 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

94.16%chance

253013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3645

602

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?

Jan 24, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.35%chance

351145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

724

Will SPD be officially part of the next Czech government?

Feb 1, 8:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.69%chance

9787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

116

Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, 2025

Jul 26, 5:21 AMOct 29, 5:20 AM

58.41%chance

10687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

844

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Will the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?

Nov 26, 12:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

77.48%chance

14428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

54

CDA overtakes VVD at 2025 Dutch Elections

Jun 23, 8:55 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

57.11%chance

6289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

What will be Argentina’s peak economic freedom between 2024 & 2030, according to the Economic Freedom of the World?

Mar 31, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6128

PVV wins at least 30 seats at the 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jul 7, 12:10 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

48.58%chance

7101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

How will Australia's freedom index change in 2026?

May 26, 8:38 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

385

OptionProbability

It drops below 95

It rises above 95

It stays at 95

It drops below 90

36

34

34

13

Will the Netherlands contribute €180 million to the Global Fund during the 2023-2025 period, as pledged in 2022?

Jan 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.13%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

324

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