Prediction markets for Eno
Will Noam Chomsky live long enough to see Luffy find the One Piece?
Feb 14, 5:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
10.95%chance
3718110
OptionVotes
2195
742
Will King Charles III of England's reign be long enough for the development of AGI?
Sep 8, 6:44 PMSep 16, 6:59 AM
10.94%chance
645108
OptionVotes
2107
738
Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?
Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43.55%chance
483468
OptionVotes
1177
797
Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?
Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
15.34%chance
533171
OptionVotes
1805
749
If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?
Jun 4, 5:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
83.18%chance
141651
OptionVotes
2224
450
Will Dick Cheney live long enough to see Monkey D. Luffy find the One Piece?
Nov 30, 3:33 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM
38.74%chance
31836
OptionVotes
2031
1975
💿Who will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Apr 28, 3:09 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM
7730
OptionProbability
42
32
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
4
Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?
Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.82%chance
18508
OptionVotes
1107
944
Will AI/chatgpt technology be good enough to autoconvert matlab code to runnable python code by EOY 2025?
Nov 11, 6:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
84.35%chance
14360
OptionVotes
1043
974
In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?
Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM
74.77%chance
12294
OptionVotes
1100
941
Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?
Jan 7, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
83.64%chance
13250
OptionVotes
1161
943
Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?
Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.12%chance
7195
OptionVotes
1172
853
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