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Prediction markets for Facebook

Will Meta adopt nostr protocol in some app or service (Facebook, Threads, Instagram, WhatsApp) before the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 11:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.24%chance

173518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4307

817

When will Google, Amazon, Facebook each employ <2,000 human software engineers?

Jan 17, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121733

OptionProbability

<2090

<2100

<2080

<2070

<2060

<2050

<2040

<2045

<2035

<2030

87

85

81

75

71

67

65

61

37

20

Will Meta's Metaverse ever outearn its Facebook?

Nov 5, 12:11 AMJul 23, 3:59 AM

25.81%chance

20795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

961

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will Facebook / Meta restart their crypto project (Diem / Libra) under the Trump administration? (Stablecoin Payments)

Feb 6, 12:31 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

71.67%chance

19577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will any social media platform surpass Facebook in terms of global active users by the end of 2025?

Jan 23, 3:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

14289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

914

EU sheeple need government app to access Facebook or X by EOY2026?

Jun 5, 11:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.52%chance

12207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will any social media app surpass Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, or TikTok in US monthly active users by EOY 2025

Feb 2, 8:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.79%chance

5145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

42

Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2025?

Jul 2, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.18%chance

890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

137

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Facebook increase its friend limit beyond 5000 friends by 2028?

Apr 27, 3:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.66%chance

473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

90

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