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Prediction markets for Federal Reserve

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.51%chance

289659278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25524

5898

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision in September

Aug 1, 4:13 PMSep 17, 5:59 PM

6667779

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

50+ bps decrease

Increase

73

26

1

0

How many net rate cuts will the Fed (Federal Reserve) do in 2025?

Jan 6, 6:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5025875

OptionProbability

1 cuts (Target 4.00-4.25)

2 cuts (Target 3.75-4.00)

3 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

0 cuts (Target 4.25-4.50 or higher)

4 cuts or more (Target 3.25-3.50 or lower)

41

35

18

4

1

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025?

Jul 15, 7:53 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

74.66%chance

6623583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1716

583

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.61%chance

93938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4549

220

Who will be the next chairman of the federal reserve board?

Apr 25, 11:04 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

91483

OptionProbability

Someone else

Kevin Hassett

Kevin Warsh

Judy Shelton

Larry Kudlow

Arthur Laffer

53

16

13

12

4

3

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

3.67%chance

16841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

695

31

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

Nov 11, 3:49 PMFeb 19, 6:59 AM

46.69%chance

18769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will Jay Powell still be chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20th, 2026?

Apr 23, 5:49 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

89.98%chance

12631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will the Federal Reserve end quantitative tightening in 2025?

May 22, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.61%chance

5415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

727

Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jun 29, 1:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.89%chance

9292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

126

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

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