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Prediction markets for Field

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

196136756

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Other

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Sam Raskin

Aleksandr Logunov

Yu Deng

Hannah Larson

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Will Sawin

Miguel Walsh

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Igor Rodnianski

25

21

12

7

7

7

7

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

3511655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8352

653

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62516

OptionProbability

Other

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

99

1

0

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.12%chance

16385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

943

Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 16, 5:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

958

Will Italy qualify on the field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 7, 12:45 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

85.26%chance

11252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?

Jan 7, 6:39 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

6158

OptionProbability

Fully autonomous car

Fully autonomous soldier

Fully autonomous surgeon

Fully autonomous airliner

57

20

12

11

When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 west expansion (to Lincoln Fields Station) open for public ridership?

Sep 4, 4:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029+

33

22

22

22

Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.43%chance

34

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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