YES

NO

YES

NO

NO

YES

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)