Prediction markets for French
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
Apr 9, 1:32 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM
9.35%chance
5918992
OptionVotes
2701
610
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election
Nov 16, 8:05 PMMay 21, 3:59 AM
8.47%chance
3710957
OptionVotes
3163
523
Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?
Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
4.53%chance
293929
OptionVotes
2190
875
Will the French President of the Republic dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of 2025 ?
Jul 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.19%chance
152832
OptionVotes
1230
813
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027
Feb 8, 12:15 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM
59.22%chance
282284
OptionVotes
1396
504
Who will represent the center in the future french presidential election in 2027
Oct 20, 10:40 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM
232169
OptionProbability
45
32
12
3
2
2
2
1
Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?
Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM
63.34%chance
291498
OptionVotes
1059
922
Will the French believe Intelligence Artificielle (IA) to be an existential risk, by 2030?
Sep 2, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM
59.57%chance
271309
OptionVotes
995
942
Will "Introduction to French AI Policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 11, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
6.62%chance
31151
OptionVotes
2044
890
OptionVotes
1680
904
OptionVotes
1038
868
François Bayrou remains French PM through September 30, 2025?
Aug 7, 1:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
57.01%chance
3170
OptionVotes
1162
878
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