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Prediction markets for Garner

Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?

Sep 2, 10:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.74%chance

332759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

700

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?

Aug 8, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10587

OptionProbability

0

3

4-5

1

2

6-8

9-13

14-21

22-34

56+

35-55

25

15

14

11

11

5

4

4

4

4

3

Next pope regarded as conservative (YES) or liberal (NO)?

Apr 21, 3:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.24%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Will law enforcement be accused of using AI generated evidence (fake) when interviewing a suspect/witness before 2026?

Mar 2, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.14%chance

6317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

427

123

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Bot-generated content makes up over 30% of social media engagement on a major platform by September 2025

Mar 12, 3:57 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

37.95%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

California AB 1154 Passes?

Jun 9, 6:31 PMDec 31, 7:31 PM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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