Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Guilty [after June 5, 2024]

Not Guilty

Trump impeached

China invades Taiwan

China attacks Taiwan

Market Meltdown

Record Broken for Hottest Day on Earth

America Under Attack

Government shuts down

Joe Biden Dead at 83

U.S. Attacked

Putin to step down

Xi dead

Landmark Decision

War declared

Fed announces

Trump

Gaza

Woman Walks on the Moon

Election overturned

Griswold Overturned

Swing States

Ceasefire established in Gaza

Putin killed

On all counts

Trump again

Trump wins

Trump convicted

Four more years

Haley to suspend campaign

Extraterrestrials Are Real

Artificial Intelligence

Putin is dead

Madam President

Jimmy Carter dies

Biden wins

Biden resigns

Biden wins again

Biden's Age is Becoming the Central Issue of the Campaign

Biden Re-elected

Sentenced to

Other

July-August 2025

September-October 2025

March 2025

April 2025

May 2025

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Sudanese Civil War ends

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

NO

YES

Before 2025-10-15

Before 2025-10-31

Before 2025-09-30

Before 2025-09-15

Before 2025-08-31

Before 2025-08-15

Before 2025-07-09

Before 2025-07-11

Before 2025-07-15

YES

NO

Will Hamas stay in power as the govt and state of the strip?

Will Israel retain a military or police presence all along the philadelphy corridor?

Will Hamas comply with the deal?

Will Israel comply with the deal?

IF Trump pressured Israel into accepting this seemingly unfavorable deal, did he offer something valuable in return?

Did Trump pressure Israel into accepting an unfavorable deal?

This something in return is a guaranteed continuation of the Abraham accords

This something in return is an attack against Iran (regime change, nuclear program, or even invasion)