Prediction markets for HARD TRUTHS
By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?
Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.22%chance
162710
OptionVotes
1130
949
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.67%chance
171570
OptionVotes
6171
4649
Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034
Sep 11, 4:05 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
54.23%chance
10175
OptionVotes
212
147
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
51%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
143
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