Prediction markets for Initialized
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.12%chance
17366341
OptionVotes
8877
3516
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)
Jun 19, 7:17 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM
24.91%chance
10618032
OptionVotes
3271
1678
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM
52.59%chance
767314
OptionVotes
2494
1805
Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?
Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
40.42%chance
161727
OptionVotes
1033
936
Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030?
Mar 26, 11:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
14.33%chance
17747
OptionVotes
1304
901
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
71.52%chance
12682
OptionVotes
1585
631
Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?
Aug 25, 3:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
41.51%chance
19582
OptionVotes
1038
957
Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?
Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
73.54%chance
18563
OptionVotes
1145
915
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.68%chance
14516
OptionVotes
1056
963
Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?
Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM
30.77%chance
1500
OptionVotes
1500
667
Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030?
Nov 13, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50.71%chance
13196
OptionVotes
1077
903
Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?
May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.47%chance
13159
OptionVotes
1875
1696
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