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Prediction markets for LIFE

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

21

19

19

18

15

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

70.65%chance

10883701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2145

618

Will there be a Assassination attempt on Donald Trumps life before the the midterms

Feb 11, 2:32 AMDec 24, 4:59 AM

23%chance

24675950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

547

Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?

Oct 9, 2:04 AMJan 16, 4:59 AM

40.3%chance

25166548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

822

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

4639822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29334

3409

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

Sep 14, 5:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

9124264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

1605

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.01%chance

847312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

658

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.36%chance

293378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

878

Will we discover alien life before 2037?

Feb 7, 10:17 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

342724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

958

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Dec 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.41%chance

302338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

971

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.2%chance

402284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

505

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