Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

Universities

Paper straws

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

Alejandro Mayorkas

Jack Smith

Solar Energy

Zohran Mamdani

Leakers

National Institutes of Health

Bruce Springsteen

The New York Times (NYT)

Panama

Alexander Vindman

Stephen Colbert

Joe Biden

The Atlantic

Greenland

Barack Obama

Beyoncé

Ann Selzer

the National Archives

Rosie O'Donnell

Michael Cohen

Fluoride

Nancy Pelosi

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

John Kelly

Public Libraries

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Miles Taylor

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Bill Barr

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Seth Myers

Taylor Swift

Vaccine mandates

Emmanuel Macron

Christopher Steele

Jimmy Kimmel

Wikipedia

Ken Klippenstein

TIME magazine

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Any Manifold User

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

Mike Pence

Jeff Bezos

Mariann Edgar Budde

SSRIs

E. Jean Carroll

WIRED Magazine

Liz Cheney

Tucker Carlson

Brad Raffensperger

BlueSky

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Pete Hegseth

Black Nationals

Alec Baldwin

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

YES

pass 500 or more executive orders

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

A literal red line on the ground/floor

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

Stays alive

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

have a journalist arrested

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

resume buying oil from Russia

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

ten or more protestors killed during term

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Announce he’s running for a third term

Dep

Causes Tina Peters' early release

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

put his name on a ship in the navy

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

new blockade of a country

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

File lawsuit against a congressperson

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

call someone retarded through text or speech

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Causes derek chauvin's early release

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

Call for the end of gay marriage

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

stops all sanctions on Russia

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Add a citizenship question to the census

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Pardon a convicted pedophile

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

Withdraw from NATO

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

host putin at mar a lago

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

expand the borders of the usa

add a new state

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

repeal Obamacare

ends black history month

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

all time high unemployment reached

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

Pardon p diddy

make statements that are negative about labubu

orders arrests of any Biden family member

take control of a part of greenland

ban trans people from holding federal offices

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

Raise the retirement age for social security

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

take control of a part of ukraine

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

pardon george santos

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

stop California from hosting the Olympics

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

repeal an amendment

pardon derek chauvin

Implement a federal abortion ban

add a new federal holiday in his honor

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

force a former president to testify before Congress

Implement a federal age of consent

Replace his Vice President

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

change the borders of a state

Salute Putin

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Call for the end of the Senate

fauci in jail at least one week

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

declares a white history month

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

bans anime

YES

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

Axios

Wired

CNN

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

The New York Times

Wikimedia Foundation

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Sierra Club

Black Lives Matter

Greenpeace

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

YES

Other

Krantz (the abstract decentralized free market of propositions that everyone competes to assign confidence and importance values to).

The United Nations

United States Government

Open AI

Anthropic

Google

Society Library

Wikipedia

Community Notes

Harvard

Open Research

Fox News

MSNBC

MIT

The Bible

Singularity Net

The Networkstate

YES

The Washington Post

Sam Bankman-Fried

Neil Gaiman

The Papacy

Drake

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Disney

MSNBC

Gavin Newsom

Sam Altman

Manifold

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

NO