Prediction markets for Made in Space
Will a peer-reviewed paper be published stating that the James Webb Space Telescope detected extraterrestrial life?
Jan 8, 2:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
4.84%chance
519463
OptionVotes
2304
864
OptionVotes
2863
349
OptionVotes
1201
927
Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?
May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
61.99%chance
93816
OptionVotes
1277
783
Will an adult movie be made in space and released by mid 2034?
Apr 17, 6:31 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
50%chance
462452
OptionVotes
1283
395
Will a man made object sent into space after market creation leave the solar system before 2030?
Jun 17, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
3.16%chance
161155
OptionVotes
1612
940
Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?
May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
32.44%chance
121057
OptionVotes
1446
696
Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)
Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
29.8%chance
9958
OptionVotes
1535
651
Will a spacecraft made by humans land on a moon of Jupiter before 2050?
Jun 12, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.3%chance
15831
OptionVotes
1502
666
Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?
Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.26%chance
16500
OptionVotes
995
975
Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?
Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.11%chance
2100
OptionVotes
1002
998
[Metaculus] Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?
Nov 9, 12:17 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM
41.24%chance
319
OptionVotes
105
78
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