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Prediction markets for Moderates

Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?

Oct 31, 1:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19%chance

19565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Manifold moderator resolves this question?

Jun 30, 11:26 PMSep 30, 11:25 PM

19.91%chance

8540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Moderates win Minneapolis city council majority in 2025

Apr 5, 6:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.44%chance

9304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will the air quality index in New Delhi, India on January 1st, 2030 be Good or Moderate?

Feb 12, 4:35 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

68.34%chance

9292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

148

Will another Moderator be banned by EOY 2025?

Apr 10, 7:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

12230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

98

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 9:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.01%chance

6148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

82

Will "Epistemic advantages of working as a moderate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 6:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

How many Moderators will be ranked on the All Time Manifold Leaderboard end of August 2025?

Jul 26, 6:51 PMAug 30, 11:59 PM

79%chance

394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Will the air quality index in New Delhi, India on January 1st, 2040 be Good or Moderate?

Feb 12, 4:35 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.9%chance

386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

43

Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a neutron moderator before 2100?

Jun 15, 12:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

71

69

Will the air quality index in New Delhi, India on January 1st, 2050 be Good or Moderate?

Feb 12, 4:36 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.74%chance

422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

86

You can now ping @mods to request moderator attention in any market. What do you think of this?

May 24, 11:46 PM

270

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