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Prediction markets for Munn

Will I drop out of college?

Jan 18, 2:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.24%chance

262351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

528

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

Jun 15, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.25%chance

231604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

906

Will I take a third semester off?

Nov 17, 11:46 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

92.02%chance

101400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

41

Will Sergiy Velychko win a Nobel prize for his work on super-SOX by 2035?

Jun 14, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.95%chance

71334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

436

When will there be people living permanently on mars?

Jan 13, 5:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15670

OptionProbability

2060-2099

2100-2179

2040-2059

>2260

2030-2039

2180-2260

before 2030

27

26

19

15

6

5

3

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.3%chance

14634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

696

Will I consistently work weekends in 10 years?

Sep 18, 3:46 AMSep 18, 6:59 AM

32.04%chance

21608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

927

Will the majority of top 100 US universities not accept the SAT/ACT for the 2025-2026 academic year?

Aug 5, 6:33 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

7.04%chance

6363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

96

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.79%chance

12296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

900

In 2028, will Democrat voters express more support for strict regulation of AI than Republican voters?

Jun 4, 8:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

144

What will my GPA be when I graduate?

Sep 26, 9:09 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

3184

OptionProbability

3.2-3.39

3.4-3.59

3.6-3.79

3.8-4

3.01-3.2

<3

26

25

22

16

7

4

Will ACX Grants 2025 disburse more than $1.5mm?

Mar 13, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.06%chance

596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

103

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