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Prediction markets for Nielsen

Which well-known scientist will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a long recorded conversation with about AI risk, before 2026?

Nov 12, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

255111

OptionProbability

Timothy Gowers

Michael Nielsen

Geoffrey Hinton

Daniel Hillis

Steven Pinker

Andrej Karpathy

Noam Shazeer

David Deutsch

François Chollet

Sean Carroll

George Hotz

Dario Amodei

Yann LeCun

Ben Goertzel

Neil deGrasse Tyson

@Krantz

23

21

20

20

16

15

11

10

10

10

8

7

7

6

6

1

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.1%chance

233895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

934

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

83.99%chance

212647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2291

437

Which team will win the Premier League 2025/26 season?

Aug 1, 5:20 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

181995

OptionProbability

Liverpool

Arsenal

Manchester City

Chelsea

Other

Manchester United

Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United

33

28

22

8

3

2

2

2

Will Michael Nielsen have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:13 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

56.8%chance

9586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

179

US provides Ukraine more Patriot systems before September 30, 2025?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMSep 29, 11:59 PM

77.98%chance

7199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone?

Apr 1, 10:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.1%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

92

Impact of Donald Trump hosting the 2025 Kennedy Center Honors on CBS viewership compared to 2024 (~4.1M)

Aug 15, 10:19 PMDec 7, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Increase of 10% or more (>4.5M)

Small increase of <10% (4.1M–4.5M)

Roughly the same (within ±5%)

Small decline of <10% (3.7M–4.1M)

Major decline of 10% or more (<3.7M)

54

11

11

11

11

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Feb 21, 3:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.47%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?

Jun 12, 5:14 PMDec 31, 6:12 PM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Michael Nielsen have kids by 2035?

Apr 23, 3:46 AMApr 30, 6:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth continue or accelerate through EOY 2026?

May 16, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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