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Prediction markets for Parkinson

Will Joe Biden ever be formally diagnosed with Parkinson's?

Jul 8, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.96%chance

206163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2714

369

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028

Apr 18, 3:55 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

94.95%chance

143162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3528

651

Will Parkinson's be curable by 2028

Aug 2, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.93%chance

7426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

570

82

Well there be popular availability of a symptom relieving glove for Parkinson's by Jan 1 2026?

Dec 18, 1:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

9.41%chance

10310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

451

121

Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?

Apr 24, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.64%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

135

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in the EU on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

91.1%chance

5268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

289

33

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in California on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

79.43%chance

6235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

115

A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029

Apr 25, 4:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.69%chance

6168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

89

Dr Tass, Parkinson's researcher, will be forced to leave Stanford

Aug 16, 11:03 PMJan 1, 8:00 PM

36.81%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

47

Will "Parkinson's Law and the Ideology of Statistics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 6, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.57%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

41

A Nobel prize in medicine award statement mentions Parkinson's disease before 2037

May 1, 6:03 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.77%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

91

89

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