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Prediction markets for Putin

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

7

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

1157

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

14624745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9509

5616

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

58.37%chance

15822340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3782

2911

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

24.44%chance

14217223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2734

1516

Will Putin outlive Biden?

Jun 28, 4:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.95%chance

14014750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3869

919

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

27.12%chance

1348059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1507

1135

Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?

Dec 30, 11:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

39.65%chance

583130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

644

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

57.79%chance

1092712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

1257

Will Putin die before Trump?

Apr 29, 9:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.89%chance

351498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1994

1431

Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?

May 12, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.11%chance

301360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1985

1730

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.95%chance

25852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2204

1770

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