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Prediction markets for Republican Party

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3074836

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?

Nov 8, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.74%chance

346678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

If the Republican party wins the 2024 US election, will Ukraine recover all its territory by Feb 2029?

Sep 19, 4:22 PMMar 1, 7:59 PM

4.91%chance

155437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4235

488

Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?

Mar 11, 4:59 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

7.69%chance

475422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1694

892

Will the Republican Party nominate a woman for president in 2028?

Jul 22, 1:21 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

13.44%chance

241994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2537

394

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

23.1%chance

551530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1668

1420

The Republicans will be the party to eliminate the Filibuster

Apr 4, 2:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.04%chance

21810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

959

Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican Party before 2029?

Mar 24, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.13%chance

23728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

752

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

41715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

Will the Democratic and Republican parties still be the two main parties by 2032?

Apr 24, 2:29 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.43%chance

13621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

893

Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?

Feb 5, 12:33 PMFeb 5, 7:59 PM

11.07%chance

11285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

954

Will any Trump leave the Republican Party?

Jan 22, 4:40 AMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.23%chance

3213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

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