YES

YES

NO

He also wins the popular vote.

The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024

He won 300+ electoral votes

The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.

Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)

Trump serves full second term

He serves the full term

Democrats win the House majority in 2026.

Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office

He gets impeached again.

His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.

Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year

Democrats win Senate majority in 2026

Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living

he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office

The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.

A national abortion ban is passed during his term.

Trump is President on January 21, 2029

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029

Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI

YES

YES

NO

Over 35

Over 40

Over 45

Over 50

Over 55

Over 60

Over 65

Over 70

Over 75

Over 80

YES

YES

YES

YES