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Prediction markets for Resilience

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1038418

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

70

39

2

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

271868

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

93

11

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

Jul 2, 8:15 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

40.06%chance

151677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

14

14

13

13

10

8

7

6

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will the EU adopt the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 13, 5:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51170

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

Ongoing in 2027

Abandoned before 2027

2023

86

8

2

2

1

0

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

Dec 10, 4:45 AMDec 17, 6:59 AM

43.58%chance

181041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

882

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will Israel Exist as a country in 2060?

Dec 21, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.34%chance

9327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

325

31

Will an OSS project stop taking donations due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.95%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

87

Will a company retract an OSS project due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.03%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

64

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

2135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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