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Prediction markets for SpaceX

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

15%chance

114226036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

1122

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

80159354

OptionProbability

20

15

12

10

6

8

7

9

92

64

32

1

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.14%chance

165141488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2907

537

Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.39%chance

2026353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2789

359

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.06%chance

14424383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3193

811

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

65%chance

6412011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

880

When will SpaceX land on the moon?

Jan 9, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

248181

OptionProbability

2028

2029

>= 2032

2027

2030

2031

Before 2027

24

24

22

14

8

6

2

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

475345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

790

Will SpaceX land on the MOON by Dec 31st 2029?

Jan 11, 3:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.59%chance

204864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

773

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

253850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

759

Will SpaceX deploy a functional payload with Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.95%chance

183420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

577

Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?

Jan 10, 2:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.63%chance

14868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

844

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