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Prediction markets for The Simple Life

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?

Jan 26, 9:59 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

714966

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2025 or earlier

In 2024

71

62

54

45

29

8

0

Will abiogenesis be demonstrated in the lab?

Jan 23, 5:33 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

432655

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

47

36

34

23

15

13

8

3

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.12%chance

122248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2683

947

Who will be appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA at some point of their life?

Jan 13, 4:33 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

6340

OptionProbability

James Ho

Andrew Oldham

Elizabeth Prelogar

Sri Srinivasan

Leondra Kruger

Paul Watford

Michelle Childs

Patricia Millett

Goodwin Liu

Kamala Harris

48

24

16

9

9

9

9

9

9

4

Will over 10,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.84%chance

9264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

415

138

If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, will cephalopod research play a significant role in its solution?

Jun 11, 2:33 AMMar 5, 4:59 AM

22.05%chance

17244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

10201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

Will artificial life be created in the lab before alien life is discovered?

Jan 1, 8:00 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80%chance

495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

77

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

00

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