Prediction markets for Variety
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60%chance
458380101
OptionVotes
3693
1551
OptionVotes
3877
887
OptionVotes
1508
982
OptionVotes
1094
913
OptionVotes
1538
762
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.36%chance
18925011
OptionVotes
1600
510
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.08%chance
188507
OptionVotes
6378
3288
By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can
Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM
89.25%chance
131018
OptionVotes
455
147
OptionProbability
28
22
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for?
Mar 7, 5:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8199
OptionProbability
75
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
40
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
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