Prediction markets for Voter
Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters bet 1000-3000 mana each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)
Jan 2, 6:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
82.35%chance
285883
OptionVotes
655
58
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
65.8%chance
464001
OptionVotes
1386
672
California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?
Aug 4, 9:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
44.61%chance
123066
OptionVotes
111
90
Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters have 1000-3000 shares each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)
Feb 29, 8:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.58%chance
163009
OptionVotes
143
73
Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?
Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
23.1%chance
551530
OptionVotes
1668
1420
By 2030, will 20% of voters identify as longtermists?
Nov 24, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.27%chance
9902
OptionVotes
428
148
Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?
Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
61.26%chance
41715
OptionVotes
1055
1010
If Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election, will voters “not have to do it anymore”?
Aug 24, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.97%chance
14534
OptionVotes
437
23
OptionVotes
1388
720
Will a major political party or politician advocate for voter registration to include captcha by the end of 2025?
Mar 7, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.04%chance
9240
OptionVotes
1148
921
OptionVotes
127
95
Voter turnout in next Unite general secretary election exceeds 15%
Jun 20, 7:36 PMDec 31, 8:36 PM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
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