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OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Josh Shapiro
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
J. B. Pritzker
Gretchen Whitmer
Marco Rubio
Jeff Jackson
Jon Ossoff
Josh Hawley
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Elise Stefanik
Nikki Haley
Ron DeSantis
Cory Booker
Wes Moore
Andy Beshear
Donald Trump Jr.
Kamala Harris
Brian Kemp
Amy Klobuchar
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
Tammy Duckworth
Tammy Baldwin
Chris Sununu
Katie Hobbs
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ted Cruz
Kristi Noem
Raphael Warnock
Jared Polis
Tom Cotton
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Catherine Cortez Masto
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Kevin Stitt
Spencer Cox
Tim Walz
Ivanka Trump
Mark Cuban
Stephen Miller
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tim Scott
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Andrew Yang
Beto O'Rourke
Mark Kelly
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
David Hogg
Will Hurd
Tulsi Gabbard
Dan Crenshaw
John Fetterman
Mark Zuckerberg
Stephen Curry
Rand Paul
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Joe Rogan
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mike Pence
Stephen Colbert
Markwayne Mullin
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Al Gore
DUPLICATE
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Sam Altman
Tucker Carlson
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Jon Stewart
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
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4
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4
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4
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4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
Snape is black
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Premieres in 2027
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Malfoy has white blonde hair
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Fred and George are twins irl
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Peeves is a reoccurring character
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
It's woke
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
mandrake root on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Hermione is white
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A house elf is shown on screen
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
At least one of the actors is transgender
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Premieres in 2026
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
We get AGI before it premieres
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
Features an explicitly transgender character
Fred and George have the same actor
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Zendaya is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hermione is Indian
Gandalf is black
Hagrid is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
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87
87
86
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80
78
75
75
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72
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70
70
68
68
65
64
64
57
57
55
55
54
43
42
41
40
40
38
35
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
21
21
15
15
15
13
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
8
7
7
7
6
6
4
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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92
91
90
90
90
90
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
68
67
66
65
65
62
62
60
58
57
57
56
56
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53
52
51
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13
13
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12
12
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11
10
10
10
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9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Rihanna
Serena Williams
Virat Kohli
Neymar Jr.
Volodymyr Zekensky
Adam Driver
Jennifer Lawrence
Zack King
Luka Doncic
PewDiePie
Justin Bieber
Daniel Radcliffe
Emma Stone
Any of the 7 BTS members
Selena Gomez
Any member of Blackpink
Margot Robbie
Adele
Michael Cera
Rafael Nadal
Maria Sharapova
Markiplier
Marques Brownlee
Any member of Girl's Generation
Ben Johns (pickleball)
Simone Biles
Tom Holland
Palmer Luckey
Halsey
Timothée Chalamet
Post Malone
Harry Styles
Kevin Durant
Lorde
John Boyega
Drake
Ariana Grande
Alia Bhatt
Camille Lellouche
Sally Rooney
Shohei Ohtani
Patrick Collison
Scott Auckerman
David Cross
Joji
Emotional Oranges (any member)
Tay Zonday
Dwarkesh Patel
Barron Trump
The next US president excluding Trump & Vance
MrBeast
Destiny
Max Verstappen
Magnus Carlsen
Manuel Neuer
Taylor Swift
MoistCritical
KSI
Emma Watson
Oreslan
Taylor Hill
Zendaya
Emelia Clarke
Pony Ma Huateng
Muqtada al-Sadr
G.E.M. (Gloria Tang)
Zhang Jike
Ritesh Agarwal
Jimin
Haley Joel Osment
Bruno Mars
Jenna Ortega
Neeraj Chopra
Alia Al Mansoori
Naomi Osaka
Kylian Mbappe
Maisie Williams
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Leonardo DiCaprio
Dylan Wang
xQc
Billie Eilish
Hikaru Nakamura
Lady Gaga
Robert Eggers
Emma Radacanu
Emma Chamberlain
Eric Rosen
Robert Pattinson
Yuna Kim
AOC
Eric Hansen
Ezra Miller
Jessie Eisenberg
Hans Niemann
Miley Cyrus
Lewis Hamilton
George Hotz
Wirtual
Vitalik Buterin
Greta Thunberg
Aella
Lil Nas X
Jennifer Aniston
Yuval Noah Harari
Katy Perry
All members of Blackpink
Oprah Winfrey
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
91
81
78
75
74
73
69
68
68
67
65
65
65
65
63
62
60
60
60
59
59
59
55
54
54
54
54
52
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
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48
48
48
47
46
46
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41
41
39
39
39
39
38
36
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
25
23
18
17
17
15
7
5
OptionProbability
Jackie Chan
Ken Watanabe
Keanu Reeves
Paul Rudd
Chris Pratt
Donnie Yen
Karen GIllan
Zendaya
Hiroyuki Sanada
Timothee Chalamet
Lucy Liu
Nicolas Cage
Dev Patel
Jim Carry
Masaki Nakao
Ryan Potter
Scarlett Johansson
Johnny Depp
Jacob Hopkins
Dylan Sprouse
Kodai Matsuoka
Elizabeth Olsen
Wesley Wong
Hayley Kiyoko
Lana Condor
Jack Black
Inaki Godoy
Emily Rudd
Jack De Sena
Dante Basco
Tom Holland
Ben Schwartz
Ryan Gosling
Aaron Paul
Leonardo DiCaprio
Michelle Yeoh
Adam Sandler
Eliezer Yudkowsky/
Destiny
33
32
23
23
22
19
15
15
15
13
13
11
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
1
1
OptionProbability
Zendaya
Tim Scott
Travis Kelce
Taylor Swift
Ariana Grande
Kanye West
Jimmy Carter
Josh Allen
Tom Brady
Pete Davidson
Timothée Chalamet
Jeff Bezos
Britney Spears
Kim Kardashian
Elon Musk
Aella
Bill Gates
Leonardo DiCaprio
John Mayer
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Donald Trump
100
100
67
55
53
52
50
50
41
39
39
38
35
35
34
31
27
26
24
23
15
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4362
282
OptionProbability
Robert Downey Jr
Cillian Murphy
Ryan Coogler
Timothee Chalamet
Ralph Fiennes
Michelle Williams
Bradley Cooper
Willem Dafoe
Edward Norton
Amy Adams
Zendaya
Tom Cruise
Glenn Close
Michelle Pfeiffer
Naomi Watts
Michael Keaton
Steve Buscemi
Paul Giamatti
Matt Damon
Laura Linney
Mark Ruffalo
Annette Bening
Colin Farrell
Sarah Silverman
Johnny Depp
John Malkovich
Jim Carrey
Woody Harrelson
Samuel L Jackson
Sigourney Weaver
Bill Murray
Peter O'Toole
100
100
91
84
80
73
69
67
59
59
53
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
34
34
34
27
27
22
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
756
42
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1465
416
OptionProbability
Other
Sydney Sweeney
Cara Delevingne
Lily James
Emily Blunt
Jennifer Lawrence
Vanessa Kirby
Florence Pugh
Margot Robbie
Zendaya
53
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
OptionProbability
Nikki Glaser
Simone Biles
Glenn Powell
Keanu Reeves
Florence Pugh
Ali Wong
Steven Yeun
Zendaya
Rachel McAdams
Finn Wolfhard
Tom Holland
Christian Bale
Noah Centineo
Jacob Tremblay
Zazie Beetz
Hailee Steinfeld
Olivia Cooke
Kiernan Shipka
Joaquin Phoenix
Tom Cruise
Brad Pitt
Leonardo DiCaprio
Millie Bobby Brown
Chloe Grace Moretz
Daisy Ridley
76
76
76
63
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
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